Welcome back to Forests Over Trees, your weekly tech strategy newsletter. It’s time to zoom-out, connect dots, and (try to) predict the future.

Here’s the plan:

• Tech News Takes — super-short analysis and commentary

• Tool of the Week — tools you’ll find useful

• Strategy Tips — strategy nuggets (for business and life)

• F/T Shoutouts — sharing launches, tech events, and other reads

A Turnaround at X?

Plus: FTC Firings, Adobe's Agents

⚡ Tech News Takes ⚡

Adobe Launches Agents

• What’s up: Adobe is getting into the AI agent game with two major announcements this week. First, they’re launching an “orchestrator” platform — a portal for managing agents, the data they have access to, etc. Second, they announced 10 out-of-the-box AI agents for customers to use, including for sales, marketing, and customer service.

• So what: We’ve written before about Salesforce’s foray into agents, and it’s smart for Adobe to follow suit. For both companies, they have a huge amount of customer data, and they’re seen as a “source of truth” for their customers. Plus, because their platforms have loads of data, the AI agents have plenty of context to work with. Early on, Adobe spent significant time focused on creative applications of AI (empowering creative users to be super-creative and super-efficient), but I think this approach to agents will be even more impactful — for customers and for Adobe’s business.

Trump Fires FTC Commissioners

• What’s up: Earlier this week, President Trump fired the two Democratic commissioners at the FTC. While US presidents always get to nominate/replace the FTC chair, non-chair commissioners typically serve-out their 7-year terms. The move is likely to face legal challenges on two grounds: 1/ the FTC is an independent commission, calling into question whether the President has the legal authority to fire commissioners; 2/ law requires the 5-commissioner group to have a max of 3 members from a single party.

• So what: Legal questions aside, this could be a really bad outcome for tech users/customers (i.e. most people!). As we’ve written about before, the FTC (alongside the DOJ), help regulate tech and bring anti-monopoly cases. That way, when tech behemoths control multiple sides of a market (cough, Google’s adtech!), or buy-out multiple competitors (cough, Meta buying Instagram and WhatsApp!), we have a way to push back, forcing competition, spurring innovation, etc. So the problem with firing everyone and starting over every four years is this — those antitrust cases take forever. As one example, when the FTC went after Dish Network for violating the Do Not Call Registry and pestering the crap out of people, the case took eight years from start to finish. They’re already in a David vs. Goliath battle for every case in terms of funding and personnel. Let’s at least give them time to work.

X is Making a Comeback

• What’s up: X’s valuation is recovering, although there are conflicting reports about the extent of the recovery. The lowest reported valuation came in September 2024, when Fidelity estimated it at $10B. But earlier this week, the Financial Times reported it at $44B (Musk’s 2022 price paid), and Bloomberg reported it at $32B. The FT also says X’s adjusted EBITDA is $1.2 billion, matching pre-acquisition levels.

• So what: The conflicting reports are not that surprising and will likely get clarified in the coming days, so let’s just say “the consensus is that X has recovered”… even that on its own is shocking! Because X is private and we can’t pour over their financials, let’s try to intuit what might have changed. Three possibilities come to mind. 1/ The cost cutting and layoffs are paying off — even if they chased advertiser revenue away, they might have cut enough to make up the difference. 2/ Advertisers are coming back — with Trump back in office, Elon being close to the administration, and businesses generally embracing conservatism again, advertisers might be more comfortable (or see upside) to getting back on X. 3/ Diversifying revenue is working — they might be converting users to premium plans, growing slightly less dependent on advertising.

🛠️ Tool of the Week 🛠️

We talked earlier about Adobe and Salesforce crashing onto the AI agent scene…

…but agents aren’t just for big tech!

There are several promising startups working on it too. And while incumbents might have larger teams and more data, they move slowly. In contrast, startups can move fast, building integrations to data sources to bridge that gap, and innovating and taking bigger risks to deliver for customers.

Our tool of the week — Artisan — is one of those AI agent startups, and their BDR agent seems to be crushing it!

See more from them below:

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🧭 Strategy Tips 🧭

X is Making a Comeback

Today's strategy tip is all about turnarounds.

We’ll look at the common ingredients of a turnaround, then use those to dive deeper into X’s comeback.

What makes for a turnaround?

I’d argue there are typically 5 things worth focusing on.

1. Leadership – Bring in new execs.
   When Steve Jobs took over a nearly bankrupt Apple in 90’s, the first thing he did was hire Tim Cook to overhaul operations.

2. Strategy – Pivot the business model and diversify revenue.
   When Adobe saw the writing on the wall for one-time software licenses, they started shifting customers to subscription models for steady recurring revenue.

3. Operations – Cut costs and obsess over efficiency.
   When Howard Schultz returned as CEO of Starbucks in 2008, he shut down 600 stores, restructured management, and refocused on core products.

4. Organization – Restructure teams and realign their priorities.
   When Bob Iger returned as CEO of Disney in 2022, he dismantled the corporate structure put in place by his predecessor and gave creative teams their power back.

5. Financing – Find new sources of funding.
   When the pandemic hit, Airbnb raised $2 billion in debt and equity financing to stabilize the business, helping them survive long enough for the travel rebound.

These are the levers leaders should look at when trying to stage a comeback!

How X is Executing

So with the framework in mind, let’s apply it to X.

1. Leadership – Almost as soon as Elon had control, he fired the CEO, CFO, General Counsel, etc. So with Elon and the new replacements for those roles, it’s pretty much a clean leadership sweep.

2. Strategy – Like we mentioned in the news reaction above, they’ve absolutely focused on diversifying revenue. They’re leaning into paid subscriptions, and they likely get a cut of Grok’s AI revenue from usage on the platform (Grok’s corporate parent, xAI, is separate from X).

3. Operations – It’s old news at this point, but Musk laid off a jaw-dropping 80% of employees when he took over. We don’t know the exact reduction in cost, but it’s not nothing.

4. Organization – The priorities and structure of the team have absolutely shifted. For example, as part of the layoffs, we heard a lot about middle-managers being removed and the trust and safety team being dissolved.

5. Financing – All these valuation rumors are swirling because X is raising ~$1B from investors! Plus, there was news a few months ago about them restructuring/repurchasing debt.

So honestly, it seems like they’re trying pretty much everything...

Wrapping Up

I’m 100% sure we’ll hear more about Elon and X in the months ahead, and I’m equally sure some of it will be bad news.

But even if they don’t fully deliver this turnaround, X is a fascinating case study of change in business, and we can learn from the good – and the not-so-good – things they try.

🌲 F/T Shoutouts 🌲

• Hatching Twitter — You might be tired of hearing about Twitter/X today, which is totally fair! But I just finished this book… and it’s awesome. The early days were arguably just as dramatic as today’s Twitter, and the storytelling/tone is gripping. If you need a book, check it out.

• Creative Inspiration — I don’t know Justin Sung at all, but I’m so impressed. On the surface level, he’s a learning coach with some awesome YouTube videos (reading faster, better memory, etc.). But on a meta level, he’s a content (and sales) genius, yall. Case in point — this 3-hr video of him ~studying~ to help you stay focused (it has ~500K views). Who thinks of this!?

Want to suggest a shoutout? Send it here.

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