AI safety is spooky

Plus: Where is Stargate!?; PayPal innovating again

Joey Padgett
July 24, 2025

Hey people!

Welcome back to Forests Over Trees, your tech strategy newsletter. It’s time to zoom-out, connect dots, and (try to) predict the future.

A quick thank you to this week’s partners:

Photo by Andy Holmes

What’s up: Telegram launched its built-in TON Wallet for 87 million U.S. users.
- The self-custodial wallet enables stablecoin transfers, token swaps, staking, and zero-fee purchases via MoonPay.
- It had over 100 million activations globally in 2024, but delayed its U.S. rollout due to regulatory uncertainty.
So what: Coinbase and Cash App should be worried. We talked about “Super Apps” last week, and I argued it’s easier to start with messaging and add features like payments or trading (ex. Telegram) vs doing that in reverse (ex. Coinbase). This will be an interesting proof point to watch!

What’s up: SoftBank and OpenAI’s $500B Stargate project is months behind, with no completed data center deals.
- The original plan to build 5 gigawatts of AI capacity has shrunk to a pilot facility, likely in Ohio.
- OpenAI has separately struck a $30B/year deal with Oracle for 4.5 gigawatts — nearly matching Stargate’s initial promise.
So what: The facts are right, but this article misses the point. First — Altman needed negotiating leverage for the still ongoing Microsoft negotiations (clarifying equity stakes, profit sharing %’s, etc.). Spinning-up multiple deals is good for leverage. Second — Softbank’s Masayoshi Son wants to double-down on AI investment. The signaling value (and optionality) of being plugged in with OpenAI is pure gold. Case-in-point — Softbank was floated as a financing partner for the new OpenAI <> Jony Ive device.

What’s up: PayPal launched a global platform integrating India’s UPI, China’s WeChat Pay, Venmo, and other wallets.
- The “PayPal World” initiative aims to streamline payments for over 2 billion users, starting Fall 2025.
- Venmo and PayPal users will soon pay across borders — and platforms — without needing shared apps.
So what: This is surprisingly innovative (and smart) from PayPal. They get to be the connective tissue, earning their cut by letting multiple apps talk to each other. For the wallet apps, it’s a mixed bag. Yes, they get to lower friction for users (nice!), letting users stay in their preferred app vs. downloading others just to accomplish something…. BUT — it puts the wallets in a weaker position compared to PayPal. They are just a “spoke”, and PayPal is both the hub (PayPal World) and spoke (PayPal app, Venmo).

What’s up: A new study shows AI models can absorb dangerous traits from meaningless-looking data, like numbers.
- Researchers intentionally created a misaligned “teacher” model, and the “student” model trained by that teacher endorsed eating glue and selling drugs.
- The bad behavior persisted despite rigorous data filtering and no explicit references.
So what: This is not surprising. We’ve talked before about alignment (keeping models “good”) and how it requires constant, careful effort. This is just another example of why… Also, let’s remember that these AI model companies should all be thoroughly testing (“red-teaming”) their models, trying to get the model to do bad things in the safety of the lab before public release. In this particular case, even if meaningless-looking data transmitted bad behavior, it should/would have been caught before public release.