Coinbase launches a super app

Plus:Chip slowdown; Scale AI layoffs

Joey Padgett
July 17, 2025

Hey people!

Welcome back to Forests Over Trees, your tech strategy newsletter. It’s time to zoom-out, connect dots, and (try to) predict the future.

A quick thank you to this week’s partners:

Photo by Esteban López

What’s up: Coinbase debuted a consumer-facing “everything app” called Base App.
- The app replaces Coinbase Wallet and combines trading, payments, messaging, social media, and mini apps.
So what: Coinbase wants to build a super app. But it seems easier for a messaging/social app to enter trading than for a trading app to go the other direction.

What’s up: Scale AI laid off 14% of staff — about 200 employees — citing overexpansion in generative AI.
- CEO Jason Droege said the company created “too many layers” and is cutting to focus on code, languages, and audio.
- They also let 500 contractors go and will restructure remaining teams.
So what: What an insane few weeks for Scale AI. Meta bought a 49% stake for $14.3B (to get their AI leaders). Then Google and other customers churned (to avoid helping a competitor). Now they’re laying off people (since they have way fewer customers). Those folks should get snapped up, but these AI talent wars are wild.

What’s up: ASML warned it can’t guarantee 2026 growth due to looming U.S. tariffs, sending shares down 11%.
- The company cited Trump’s threat of a 30% EU import tariff and shifting client investment timelines.
- ASML’s Q2 sales and margins beat estimates, but order growth is softening.
So what: This isn’t good. As we’ve discussed ad nauseum, the chip industry is specialized and global, and ASML is a critical link in the chain. Hurting their growth will hurt everyone’s growth, including the Nvidias and OpenAIs of the world that have investors head over heels.

What’s up: JP Morgan will start charging fintech companies for access to their customers’ banking data.
- Pricing will reportedly be variable, with higher rates for payment-focused use cases.
So what: Banks want to stop letting their competitors (fintechs) in the front door for free, and I don’t blame them. But if it slows down progress, users will demand that banks themselves pick up the innovation slack.

Biggest AI Deals of 2025 — Shoutout to Visual Capitalist for another incredible graphic. This really puts the Scale AI story from earlier in perspective… The 2nd biggest deal of the year, rivaled only by a massive OpenAI fundraise, was essentially an acqui-hire of Scale AI’s leaders!?

How billionaires use AI — …or at least, this one billionaire. Absolutely love Dharmesh, the CTO of Hubspot. He covers recent innovations in AI in a super approachable way. Worth a watch.