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Welcome back to Forests Over Trees, your weekly tech strategy newsletter. It’s time to zoom-out, connect dots, and (try to) predict the future.

Here’s the plan:

• Tech News Takes — super-short analysis and commentary

• Tool of the Week — tools you’ll find useful

• Strategy Tips — strategy nuggets (for business and life)

• F/T Shoutouts — sharing launches, tech events, and other reads

GM Closes Cruise and Stops Scanning Horizon

Plus: Adobe’s AI Slump, Apple’s New NFC Competitors

⚡ Tech News Takes ⚡

GM Closes Cruise

• What’s up: GM announced Tuesday that they would close their robotaxi unit, Cruise. They’ll integrate what’s left of Cruise into GM and focus those engineers on building autonomous vehicles for private owners. In explaining the decision, GM CEO Mary Barra pointed to delayed payoff and high development costs (~$10B to date) for the robotaxi venture.

• So what: This is sad, but not surprising. As we covered in October, they’ve been talking up L3 systems (hands-off, eyes-off) in consumer cars, and talking down Cruise, for months. But the sad thing is that Cruise (and GM) had the chance to be a leader — not just in robotaxi’s — but in autonomous capabilities more broadly. But without the pressure to succeed in robotaxis, they’ll cut corners and set smaller goals for autonomy. Setting big goals matters.

Adobe Down on AI Concerns

• What’s up: Adobe’s stock dropped 8% today despite beating earnings targets for 2024 and growing revenue +11% YoY. The concern is that Adobe issued lower 2025 guidance and that their growth is slowing (it was +23% in 2021, +12% in ‘22 and ‘23).

• So what: Analysts are worried Adobe’s AI investments aren’t paying off, and I don’t blame them. Adobe is certainly well positioned — just as any company with tons of data and a big userbase is — to thrive riding the AI wave. But it seems they aren’t willing to self-disrupt and signal new messaging as ferociously as some of their peers (ex. Salesforce, with their huge push to make Agentforce happen). Perhaps it’s because they’re tip-toing around existing, sophisticated Adobe users and don’t want to rock the boat. But it’s probably time to make some bolder bets and put real messaging muscle behind them.

Apple Opens Up NFC

• What’s up: In response to regulatory scrutiny in the EU about Apple Pay, Apple has been forced to open up NFC access to comptetitors. The first app to take advantage of that — Vipps, from Norway — has just gone live in the App Store earlier this week. Customers can even set Vipps as their default tap-to-pay payment option, superceding Apple’s own option.

• So what: It will be fun to see what creative apps get built with NFC capabilities, but part of me feels bad for Apple. They’ve invested hugely in R&D, manufacturing lines, etc. to create these beautiful devices…. hoping their other services/apps/etc. propel their growth. But with regulators forcing them to both open up the hardware and drastically shift how those services work (a common theme), Apple may need to rethink its pricing/revenue models and where the growth is going to come from.

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🧭 Strategy Tips 🧭

GM Closes Cruise and Stops Scanning Horizon

Today's strategy tip is all about scanning the horizon.

Specifically, we'll explore GM’s decision to scale back its Cruise autonomous vehicle operation and break it down using McKinsey’s Three Horizons Framework.

But first, let’s get introduced to the framework.

The Three Horizons Framework helps companies balance short-term performance with long-term growth by categorizing initiatives into three "horizons":

• Horizon 1: Your Core Business – You don’t have to imagine the future for these initiatives… they’re already there creating incremental value for customers and driving revenue.

• Horizon 2: Big Opportunities – They need investment and will take time, but someday a few of these could absolutely supersede your core business.

• Horizon 3: Early Bets — These are years away and risky… But if they work – they could completely transform the business. Sprinkles of seed money are all they need, so you can make lots of bets.

For my visual learners… ze visual!

So to make good use of the framework, companies need to think ahead and plan across all three time horizons. This helps them balance short-term, incremental improvements (“we need a faster horse”) with long-term, game-changing innovations (“we need cars”).

Speaking of cars, let’s bring GM back-in, for some good-natured backseat driving.