Welcome back to Forests Over Trees, your weekly tech strategy newsletter. It’s time to zoom-out, connect dots, and (try to) predict the future.

Here’s the plan:

• Tech News Takes — super-short analysis and commentary

• Tool of the Week — tools you’ll find useful

• Strategy Tips — strategy nuggets (for business and life)

• F/T Shoutouts — sharing launches, tech events, and other reads

Google’s Forced Breakup

Plus: Crypto is on fire; IPO market is thawing

⚡ Tech News Takes ⚡

Klarna Will IPO in the US

• What’s up: Klarna, the buy-now-pay-later provider, filed for a US IPO a few weeks ago. The company is based in Sweden, but they have global investors including Softbank and Sequoia. The company previously raised funds at valuations as high as $46B, which whipsawed down to $6.7B, and is now hovering around $15M.

• So what:  This is a dagger in the heart for Europe, which continues to struggle with incentivizing and retaining its founders. But it’s a big positive for the US IPO market, which has been quiet. Lots of other tech companies (including Stripe and SpaceX) are rumored to be considering IPOs, so if Klarna’s goes well it could drive lots of copycats.

Crypto Rips

• What’s up:  Crypto is having a good news month. First, Trump got re-elected, and he’s seen as crypto-friendly (attending crypto conferences, floating the idea of a national bitcoin reserve, etc.). Second, SEC chair Gary Gensler will step down on inauguration day. He’s been very unpopular with the crypto community due to his “regulation by enforcement” approach (not providing clear guidelines, but reacting critically to nearly all crypto activities). Third, Bitcoin is on the brink of reaching $100K.

• So what: This is not investment advice, but we should expect to see frothy activity here (and in other risk-on asset markets) for the foreseeable future. This will make Fed Chair Powell’s job much more difficult – balancing inflation, high rates, etc. Also, I’m excited for what a new SEC commissioner – one that’s more open to providing clear guidelines – could mean for crypto. And by crypto, I’m not just talking about investing/speculating on currencies…

Google Breakup

• What’s up:  The US DOJ asked a federal court to break-up Google. They want 1/ Google to sell Chrome, 2/ Google to either sell Android or stop making its services mandatory on Android phones, 3/ Google to be prevented from signing agreements to be a default search engine on phones/browsers. 4/ Google to provide its search index to competitors. 5/ Google to shed any stakes in AI companies that could compete with search engines. These remedies were recommended by the DOJ per the request of Judge Amit Mehta, who will now request recommendations from Google themselves (Dec target). Then, Mehta will likely issue a ruling in mid-2025.

• So what:  Honestly, these remedies seem over-the-top. But we should see them as a negotiation tactic. DOJ is throwing out bold proposals to anchor the judge (and Google). When Google issues its own proposals in December, they’ll likely be just as extreme, but in the other direction. Plus, there’s a long way to go, and appeals, etc.

Microsoft Plans to Avoid Another CrowdStrike Outage

• What’s up: Microsoft announced a new framework – the Windows Resiliency Initiative – to try to avoid another outage like the one caused by CrowdStrike. The initiative includes 1/ a Quick Machine Recovery feature – so you can remotely recover rather than needing an in-person reboot. And 2/ stronger controls over which apps are allowed to run in kernel mode. Apps in kernel have access to all memory/functionality, so bugs here (like the CrowdStrike one) can have outsized negative impact.

• So what: The Quick Machine Recovery update is a great one. It gives Microsoft a capability they probably should have had before – remotely squashing bugs even when machines can’t boot up. But the kernel mode controls will make things complicated for security apps (and could open-up vulnerabilities in the meantime). Security apps operate in kernel mode so they can have full visibility into any attacks. Pushing them outside of the kernel could affect their ability to scan/mitigate threats. Plus, anytime the security landscape changes, it creates new surface area and potential vulnerabilities for fast-moving hackers to exploit.

🛠️ Tool of the Week 🛠️

I love the holidays, because I get time to think. And most years, I start thinking about what’s coming next.

If you’re like me, these thoughts and ambitious plans about “what’s next” typically end up in a random journal – opened approximately once per year.

But this year, I’m doing it differently. I saw this habit tracking template on Notion, so I’m going to give it a shot.

If you’re in a planning mood and looking to super-charge your habits in 2025, let’s get a headstart!

You can grab it for free here.

🧭 Strategy Tips 🧭

Google’s Search Flywheel

This week’s strategy tip is all about flywheels.

Specifically, I want to unpack the Google anti-trust remedies proposed by the DOJ, using the flywheel effect to dive deeper.

People throw the term flywheel around constantly, so let’s start with a description from the guy that coined the term – Jim Collins.

In practical terms, here’s how that translates to the activities of a business:

1. Pick a goal to push towards

2. Do multiple reinforcing things to push in that direction

3. Watch your effort compound, accelerating you toward your goal

To make that even more tangible, let’s bring Google back in.

Google’s mission – the goal they’re pushing towards – is to organize the world’s information.

And they are constantly pushing in that direction, with multiple, reinforcing steps.

First is Google Search, where each search makes their search index better. So there’s already a miniature flywheel happening. Google Search has ~90% market share.

Second is Google Chrome, their browser. It’s an entry point to more Google Search activity, since it’s the default search for Chrome. Plus, Google lobbies/pays to be the search default for other browsers (Safari, Firefox). Chrome has ~65% market share.

Third is Android, Google’s open-source mobile operating system (OS). Android relies heavily on Google services, and many vendors that sell Android phones pre-package them with Chrome for ease of use. Plus, Google can again lobby/pay to be the default search on Android devices. Android has ~70% market share.

For my visual learners – ze visual!