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TikTok Deal “Framework”
Plus: Meta’s Trying to Out-Glass Google; Anthropic Snubs Feds
Joey Padgett
September 18, 2025
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Welcome back to Forests Over Trees, your tech strategy newsletter. It’s time to zoom-out, connect dots, and (try to) predict the future.
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TikTok Deal “Framework”
Plus: Meta’s Trying to Out-Glass Google; Anthropic Snubs Feds
⚡ Tech News Takes ⚡
(4 stories)
What's up: Meta unveiled Ray-Ban Display smart glasses with built-in display and Neural Band wristband controller for $799, available starting September 30th.
The glasses feature a display on the right lens showing apps, alerts, and directions, controlled by subtle hand gestures via the EMG wristband.
So what: This is huge for Meta. Not only have they sold millions of the prior Ray-Ban smart glasses with the camera, but now they’re taking the next step to do what Google Glass couldn’t do. Excited to see whether this lives up to the hype.
What's up: Waymo is expanding to Nashville through a Lyft partnership, with autonomous driving starting in coming months.
The service will open to the public in 2026, with Lyft managing fleet operations while Waymo handles the self-driving technology.
Waymo currently provides more than 250,000 paid trips weekly across over 700 square miles in five cities.
So what: This is a game-changer for Waymo and Lyft. For Lyft, it’s more evidence they’re slowly catching Uber (Lyft’s CEO touted marketshare growth from 26% to 31% since 2023…). For Waymo, this is part of an ongoing partnership dance with Uber. Both are diversifying partnerships, to try to prove they don’t need each other and get better terms…. but I think they’ll still be the long-term co-leaders of the space.
What's up: Anthropic refused federal law enforcement requests to use Claude for surveillance, deepening White House tensions.
The company limits FBI, Secret Service, and ICE access because those agencies conduct surveillance, which violates Anthropic's usage policy.
OpenAI's policy allows "authorized monitoring," while Anthropic's broader "domestic surveillance" ban creates interpretation issues.
So what: Anthropic is living up to their brand here. This is the group that originally split off from OpenAI to be more safety and security focused, so it’s not surprising to see them prioritizing privacy (saying no to the authorities). It reminds me of Apple refusing to unlock iPhones to help prosecutors… more of a branding exercise than anything else.
What's up: Oracle, Silver Lake, and A16z would control 80% of TikTok's US operations under a newly announced framework.
The plan is for users to shift to a new app with licensed ByteDance algorithms, while Oracle handles data storage in Texas.
The new entity would have an American-dominated board with one US government-designated member.
So what: I predict this deal falls apart. Here are the issues. First, it feels too favorable to the Americans (80% of future revenue!?). Second, it’s not clear if/how it addresses the US’ security concerns, since it still uses a copy of TikTok’s algorithm and a China-built app. Third, they’ll risk marketshare if they force users to switch (some won’t, and algorithms will need to learn about you again so it might feel less engaging).
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