Welcome back to Forests Over Trees, your weekly tech strategy newsletter. It’s time to zoom-out, connect dots, and (try to) predict the future.

And say hello to the new format! — I moved from Substack to beehiiv, because it’s a bit more powerful and unlocks some cool stuff. So today, you’ll see the new standard sections. But I have a other plans too! More on those soon.

Here are the new sections:

• Tech News Takes — super-short analysis and commentary

• Strategy Tools — strategy nuggets (for business and life)

• F/T Shoutouts — sharing launches, tech events, and other reads

YouTube is Leaking

Plus: Roblox’s latest moves, and how to ignore bad advice

⚡ Tech News Takes ⚡

YouTube creators are going rogue

• What’s up: The Try Guys – who run a YouTube channel with 8M+ subscribers – built and launched their own streaming service. It’s $5 per month and is already 20% of their revenue.

• So what: I predict this catches on. As a creator, competing for algorithmic brownie points – and being susceptible to product changes (cough, Twitter) – stinks. Plus, mega-platforms crown a few winners (i.e. Mr. Beast) and keep the rest fighting for scraps. Medium-sized creators can “own their audience”, go direct, and earn more.

Roblox is playing chess, not checkers

• What’s up: Roblox announced higher creator revenue share for higher-priced items, up to 70% for ~$50 items. Creators can also now sell merch via a new Shopify integration, and get pricing recommendations to optimize revenue.

• So what: Obsessing over creators is smart (as we’ve covered before), but this is particularly clever. It encourages creators to go above-and-beyond, tilting towards more valuable (to customers), more profitable (to creators) experiences. It might even tempt more traditional game developers into building on the platform.

Regulators continue to gun for the big guys

• What’s up: Google lost an EU appeal about Google Shopping monopoly abuse, and Apple lost an appeal on an Irish tax case that will cost them $10B in Q4. Lastly, the US DOJ started digging into Nvidia’s contract and partnership terms. All this week!

• So what: The US DOJ beat Google in the search monopoly case, and regulators everywhere are acting more boldly. We should expect even more cases, and even more caution (ex. creative partnerships instead of acquisitions).

🛠️ Strategy Tools 🛠️

Value Chains as an Advice Filter

Today’s strategy tip is about knowing when to listen – and when to ignore – advice.

Here’s an example…

Pretend you and I make competing software.

I run Company A. We’ve got decent prices, 10+ products, and mediocre customer service. We aren’t really known for anything.

You run Company B. You’ve got super low prices, 2 products, and awful customer service. But everyone knows your price can’t be beat.

If I follow “best practice” advice and try to copy one thing you do (ex. lower prices), on its own that’s not enough!

You’ll win because everything you do – slim product line, under-paying support staff – is about enabling super low prices.

Together those tradeoffs create a value chain that’s hard to copy.

So when you hear advice, use the value chain as your filter.

Ask yourself –  Is this smart, and enabling us to do more of the thing(s) we’re known for? Or is it just muddying our positioning and distracting our team?

🌲 F/T Shoutouts 🌲

• Great thread on Threads – Loved this post about the reality of product roles in big tech. Influencing is an underrated skill!

• Finally, actually “get” neural nets – Really solid explainer here from a fellow product-person-slash-newsletter-writer.

• Love video games and live in SF? – A few spots left for this 9/14 meetup. Industry folks, fans, and gamers all welcome!

Want to suggest a shoutout? Send it here.

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